Brookings Conference on the Evolution of China's Governance

So, it’s been a fairly busy week on the China front at the Brookings Institute, which hosted two excellent conferences on the Evolution of China’s Governance as well as the Evolution of China’s Economy.

A synopsis of the conferences is probably the way forward in trying to explain the significance of the next five years in terms of governance and economic reform, I’ll also try and spice it up with my own observations.

In terms of the evolution of China’s governance, Wang Changjiang from the CCP Party School was the biggest catch for a Brookings guest speaker.  He brought up several interesting points, including:

External pressure does not exist for the CCP

The perspective of a monolithic government of China is a mistake

A market economy will inevitably lead, in an orderly manner, to a democracy

He also mentioned a few specific reforms to the governing process:

Strengthen the role of the Party Congress: “The current role of the Party Congress is to applaud every five years…”

The Congress could be present for standing committee meetings while also establishing more permanent committees.

While the gist of his speech was about reforming the Party governance structure as a means to create widespread democracy throughout China, I was particularly interested by his perspective that a market economy will lead to a democracy.  There are currently plans to double the minimum wage in China within three years, and as more and more people reach middle class status there will be pressure to democratize.  I think it’s accepted in the US and elsewhere that democracy and a market economy are not linked, China is the often cited example, so to hear the director of the Party School emphasize the importance of this connection is pretty shocking.

The former Ambassador to China, Roy Stapleton, also made an appearance at Brookings, who looked at age limits of the party leadership as means of bringing fresh perspectives to the CPC.  “There would be no John McCain in the Chinese political system”.  Instead, Ambassador Roy emphasized the fact that Xi Jin Ping, who is slated to replace Hu Jintao, was twenty-six at the time of Reform and Opening.  The Ambassador also stressed the importance of economic growth as an instigator of change within the Chinese government.

Yu Ke Ping, a Professor with the China Center for Comparative Politics and Economics at Beijing University, identified eight principal challenges to reform.

1.     Problems with election mechanisms

2.     Checks and balances are not in place

3.     Public service is lacking

4.     Issues with transparency

5.     Administrative costs

6.     Rule of law is lagging

7.     Civil society is immature

8.     Relationships between the public and organs of state need reform

Professor Yu’s proposed way forward includes:

1. Strengthen the rule of law

2. Institute intra-party democracy

3. Emphasize social justice

There were also several interesting discussions following the Q&A

Professor Yu reiterated that change is incremental, not gradual.  The difference is important, because incremental change is uncontrollable; it is inevitable.  Gradual change, on the other hand, implies a level of control.

Another key finding was a look at other Asian countries and their applicability to China.

Ambassador Roy looked at Thailand, where a rushed democracy led to chaos and eventually a strongman rule.

According to Professor Yu, the Chinese government has been closely monitoring Singaporean society for many years.  Singapore is a fairly rigid society, with punishments on the books for every fathomable offense as well as strict ethnic ratio quotas (74% Chinese, 13% Malay, 12% Indian and other… http://theonlinecitizen.com/2011/02/race-issues-in-singapore-is-the-hdb-ethnic-quota-becoming-a-farce/)

There are, however, two fundamental differences between Singapore and china.  First, there are 75 million Party members in China compared with 4.5 million citizens in all of Singapore.  Second, there are sophisticated mechanisms in place to gauge public sentiment in Singapore, which is currently not the case in the PRC.

Another difference between Singapore and China: a cursory glance at taking the trains!

 Spring Festival in China is the largest migration of people on earth- in 2008 the trains broke down in Guangzhou, people were furious and Premier Wen had to show up to calm everyone down.  Strengthening relations between the public and organs of state is a necessary reform in China.

Singapore Central Station, Spring Festival period 2010.  Note the absence of an angry mob.

Cheng Li, a Brookings Institute resident scholar, was the final speaker at the conference.  He focused on some of the nitty gritty details of what to expect in 2012, when 70% of the total Chinese leadership will be replaced.  The crux is that so much is still unknown.

9-12 people are vying for 3 openings on the standing committee.

His principal statement, however, was the theory of “One Party, Two Coalitions”.    According to Mr. Li, there is currently an even 50-50 split between “Elitists” and Populists” at all levels of governance.  The Elitists are made up of Princelings, the sons of current Party members, as well as dark forces from the Shanghai mafia and industrialist supporters.  The Populist coalition is more of a socially conscious group that looks to solve problems related to rapid urbanization.  For more on Cheng Li’s “One Party, Two Coalitions”, check out: http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0816_china_li.aspx

The basic message I got out of the conference was that, despite the impression in the US that believes government and free market having nothing to do with each other, key players in the China scene believe otherwise.

Well, that about wraps up my synopsis of the Brookings Conference on Government reform over the next five years.  I’ll post the second installment on economic reform shortly, and look to make a comparative analysis.  As always please leave your thoughts and questions!