The "Taxi" and "Espresso" index of regional development

There are two or three indicators, in my opinion, that best gauge a city or region’s development.  If Purchasing Power Parity can be summed up in the Big Mac index- the cost of the same Macdonald’s burger in different countries, perhaps there is also a “Taxi” or “Espresso” index that can help identify development in China.

Taxi Index: the base cost of a Taxi.  In China, the base cost of taking a taxi, usually the first km or so, can range between 5 and 16 RMB (compare at roughly 6.5 RMB to the dollar).  The way I see it, the higher the taxi base fare price, the more developed the city.  Of course, there are exceptions to this rule, and I could use some input to flesh it out.

Espresso index: is there a Starbucks in the city.  Plain and simple.  The more Starbucks in a city, the more developed it is.

I also toyed around with including a KFC, McDonalds and Wal-Mart index, however, this leads to complications.  I say so because my students informed me the price of McDonalds is simply too high for many of them (in Changchun a Big Mac Meal runs about 3 dollars…)

So it comes down to Taxis and Starbucks.  Taxis are a great way to judge because anyone can take a taxi to get around.  Starbucks are another clear indicator because there’s a financial threshold for the type of people who can afford a 3 dollar cup of coffee.

That being said, here’s a list of developed and developing cities/provinces in China.  Please understand these are based on my personal observations, and while I have yet to visit many places in China, I can safely say I traveled through at least half of them.

Also note, unless I mention otherwise, I just grabbed photos off the web. 

Jilin Province:  Developing.

Honest, I can safely say the long, cold winters of the NE hamper development in this area of China.  There may be other factors involved, like corruption, but I couldn’t tell you what kind of effect that has.

Province-wide, there are no Starbucks and taxi base fare is 5RMB.  Jilin would rank as one of the least developed Chinese provinces.  Changchun, the capital, does have a number of independent coffee shops, but I would say the city is ready for Starbucks.  Changchun has a Five Star hotel for crying out loud.  Also, back in the spring of 2010 the local government wanted to increase the base fare of taxis from 5 to 7 RMB.  The Taxi drivers would not have received any of the money from the fare-hike, and so they went on strike.  For three days, starting on Thursday.  The entire city was paralyzed, business suffered, and the authorities lost a tremendous amount of “face”.  The government caved in after just 24 hours, agreeing to keep the fare at 5RMB.

 In Jilin City.  In the background is the Snow Beer Brewery, although the place was restricted and I couldn't visit, a number of expats believe Snow Beer could be exported to great effect.  Also, I'm a lot colder than I look.

Heilongjiang:  Developing.

6RMB base fare with a 1RMB fuel surcharge.  No Starbucks.  I only had a chance to visit Harbin, however, but as the capital it might be a safe bet to say this NE province needs more development.

Liaoning:  More or less developed.

I visited Shenyang and Dalian multiple times, and they were excellent cities.  They each had at least one Starbucks, and taxi fare was about 7RMB base fare.  Shenyang has a rich cultural history, hosting the mini-forbidden city of the Manchus, and is the capital of Liaoning.

Although I could post photos of the Mini Forbidden City in Shenyang, the beer garden was also fun.  Again, Snow is the local brew in NE China, and who could resist such an advertisement?

Dalian is more the banking/finance city.  Dalian really is about my favorite place to visit, the people are friendly, the food is great and the city art is modern.

Soccer is HUGE in Dalian, as it turns out.  The tale of the rag-tag Changchun Friends Football club playing the Dalian expats is epic.  And embarrassing.

The Sea Shell museum in Dalian, circa 2008.  In 2010 the museum was demolished to make room for sleek new apartments.

Dalian’s city history is also rich, if limited, and I’ll probably write a post specifically about it (the Dalian oil spill shocked me to the core, you can read about it some more in one of the other posts).

Shandong:  Some cities developed, others not.

Qingdao was an excellent choice for winter travel.  The base fare for taxis is 7/8RMB, and there were several Starbucks.  There was also the Qingdao brewery, and a local custom of putting a pitcher of beer into a plastic bag.  The “beer-in-a-plastic-bag” custom naturally lends itself to frat parties, as you simply cut off one corner of the bag and chug the whole pitcher.

 Germany's sphere of influence included Qingdao, the train station looks like it came right out of Bavaria.  In WWI the German soldiers squared off against Japan, and despite overwhelming numbers held the city for over two months.  German morale was probably boosted by the creation of the Qingdao Brewery, "For the Kaiser, For Germany, For Beer" may have been the rallying cry.  The point is there should be a movie made about it.

The Stairway to Heaven.  Even though there wasn't a Starbucks I still managed to grab a decent cup of coffee at the top.

Beijing: a World Class city.

The Forbidden City, but I got in!

Beijing has everything, including a base-fare price of 10RMB.  The only city I visited with a more expensive base-fare was Shanghai.  At the same time, taking a cab around Washington, D.C. is much more expensive.  I mostly traveled by metro in Beijing anyway, can’t beat 2RMB tickets and no traffic.  Of course there is the Forbidden City, but another incredible feature of this city is the largest LED screen in the world.  It isn’t turned on every night though, because the amount of energy it consumes would rock your socks off.  There’s also a billion Starbucks.

Tianjin: Yes it’s developed, and Yes I couldn’t stand the pollution.

An expat from Changchun, who had lived there for 15 years, once told me if an expat misbehaves he or she could be banished to Tianjin.

I spent 24 hours in Tianjin, and would have been more impressed with the city if there had not been a green/yellow haze of pollution.  Maybe things have cleaned up since 2009, but I didn’t want to spend time looking for a Starbucks.  As I recall the base-fare was 8/9RMB or so.

Hainan: Developing.

Haikou beaches.  There are plans on the books to seriously develop Hainan, and if a Starbucks or two pops up it will be a smashing success.

Haikou has nice beaches for sure, but the cab fare is 5RMB and a cursory glance around town could tell you this province needs more development, and less nuclear submarines.  No Starbucks.

Sporting my Russian beard.

Sanya was also nice, however I didn’t have to time explore more of the beaches outside the city.  Lots of Russians though, as I understand there is a special relationship allowing visa free travel for Russians who want to escape Siberian winters.

Guangzhou: Developed sections, inconvenient layout

Sun Yat Sen memorial hall- a great place to see a concert as it turns out.

I wasn’t a fan of Guangzhou, which has a nice airport but is an hour away from the city.  I missed my flight, by 10 minutes, which serves me right for trying to book a 7:30am trip to Chongqing.  A note for future travelers, don’t book morning flights out of Guangzhou.

I can’t remember the exact fare for cabs, but I would venture its 9RMB or so.  There’s a thriving downtown business section that has a Starbucks or two, however not so many cool places to visit.  The most notable locale, in my opinion, was the Sun Yat Sen memorial hall, which documents 20^th century Chinese history and was the place were Japan formally surrendered.

Chongqing:  Developing.

Fog or Pollution?

There are 30 million people who live in or around the city.

Look no further than Chongqing if you’re in the mood for developing China.  I stayed at a hostel in Ci Qi Kou district for 2 dollars a night!!!  The Old Town district is about an hour by bus to the city center- there was an old lady on the bus trip who brought her goose along for the ride- and when I did take a cab it was 5RMB.  I also rode on the back of a motorcycle for transport, it made me feel special :p

I really enjoyed my time in Chongqing, despite the fog/pollution, and there were a few Starbucks I could chill at.  I only met two foreigners during my week long stay, one English teacher and another businessman.  I was there mostly to just relax.

 At the Chongqing Zoo.  I understand there is an entire industry for Westerners who correct outrageous errors in translation.

Hubei:  Developing.

I had my shoes shined in Yichang City for 5RMB, about the same as a taxi fare.   This the final leg of the Yantze River cruise I took, and while the scenic overlooks are breathtaking, this city of 1.4 million people didn’t have a lot going for it, much less a Starbucks.

Wuhan was a side trip, and the cost of taking a boat across the river was more expensive than the taxi ride.  There was, however, a Starbucks!  I treated a former student of mine to coffee there, it was his first time going to one and it meant a lot to him.

Jiangsu: Developed

Nanjing was fabulous. Taxis were kind of steep at 10RMB as I recall, there were a few Starbucks around town to boot.  The Fu Zi Miao district was dreamy, complete with canals and ice-cream parlors.  The city also has one of the tallest skyscrapers in the world, as well as a developing metro system (there are two lines that make an X, not very convenient compared with Shanghai or Beijing).  The Nanjing Massacre museum is the elephant in the room, however, and for all the city’s charm it can be uncomfortable thinking about the ghosts of the past.

Fu Zi Miao, Nanjing

Suzhou had cheaper taxis, but I mostly took the bus.  There are also literally hordes of bicycle riders!  The interior gardens were great, with too many people crowding them, however, it can be difficult to take.  I much preferred Tongli.

Zhejiang:  Developed

Hangzhou is a pretty magical place, with Starbucks galore and enough expensive taxis to go around!  Base-fare is 10RMB, and the buses around town cost four renminbi.  Outrageous.  At the same time, Hangzhou really is the most beautiful city on earth.

A stroll along West Lake is about as good as it gets.

Ningbo was made for expats.  I even found a New York style pizzeria that served a mean slice.

Shanghai, well, is Shanghai.  There’s no other city like it in China.

There are plans to create "Shanghai Tower", which will apparently dwarf the Pearl tower.  Also, either the world's tallest street lamp or a crazy thing called "perspective".

Not everything in Shanghai is ultra modern.

Taxis were 16RMB, 20 at night.  There weren’t enough of them, however, and a French guy I met even suggested the rates needed to increase.  Like Beijing, there were a billion Starbucks, I couldn’t handle it.

Shanxi and Shaanxi: Developing

Sadly, I didn’t have enough time to explore Shanxi and Shaanxi.  I never made it to Taiyuan, but I figured it was another large city and I decided to hang out in Pingyao instead.  I thoroughly enjoyed getting my fortune read by a Toaist monk in Pingyao, and the beef was succulent.  There were no taxis inside the city walls.  Xian was another great place.

 Terra Cotta warriors outside Xian.  Once construction was complete the workers were summarily executed to hide the location.

A three thousand year old cup at the Shanxi Museum.  The curators said it was worth "half of Hong Kong"

Gansu province is very much developing.

The Lonely Planet identified Lanzhou, the capital, as the most polluted city in China, and there were few if any expats living there.  Dunhuang, on the other hand, was a great experience.  Again, no Starbucks and taxis were 5RMB.

Pondering the mysteries of Mingsha Shan

Dunhuang deserves it’s own posting, I’ll leave you with a teaser by saying this city will be mentioned in a future post on China’s energy policy…

I hope I’m not missing any other provinces, if I do come up with some more I’ll post an update.  I do think the “Taxi” and “Espresso” index of development works for the most part, at least in China, and it could be expanded in the future.

UPDATE: Dinner with Big Whigs

Actually, I didn't have dinner with the Governor of Jilin Province as it turns out.  Instead, he was the Dean of the English department at one of the universities around town (he couldn't speak English).  They do look alike though!

Sun Zheng Cai, Governor of Jilin Province

Not Sun Zheng Cai, maybe his doppelganger

Dinner with the Big Whigs

When I was attending last week’s conference at the Brookings Institute my eyes literally bulged out of my head when Sun Zheng Cai came up as one of the up-and-coming stars of the Party.  I may have shared a hot pot dinner with that guy!!

Sun Zheng Cai, Governor of Jilin province since 2009.  I typically spiced up toasts with catch phrases like “to US-China relations!”

Now, how did a lowly English teacher wind up having dinner with a top official?  Surprisingly, this is a fairly common experience for expats, at least for those living in developing parts of China.  My story revolves around a school administer who took a liking to me and introduced me to his friends.  I must have impressed them with my ability to give toasts in Chinese. (jiu fang zhiji qian bei xiao is a real winner for any occasion!  Translates to “between friends a thousand glasses is not enough”.  I also spiced up the toasts with ‘US/China relations, best friends forever!’)

It’s fun to meet big fish, at least when they aren’t playing their favorite game “get the foreigner sick off beijiu…”.  At one of these dinners I met the minister of education for Jilin province, who toasted to my success as a teacher.  Why the high praise?  Apparently my sneaky administrator friend had set up a lunch with a young girl to tutor for an hour or so, claiming it was a favor for a friend, and I had no real clue she was the daughter of a Big Whig much less the daughter of the minister of education…

Another time I was at a birthday party dinner, and two funny things happened.  First, everyone at the table started discussing how dark their skin was.  The consensus was that everyone had dark skin to one degree or another; me trying to fit in casually mentioned I have pretty fair skin.  Everyone had a good chuckle, because apparently they were alluding to their level of corruption- the darker the “skin” meant the more on the take…

That same evening I was invited to attend KTV, karaoke, and as soon as we made it to our private room my hosts began singing Revolutionary patriotic songs.  I replied by going all out with Jail House Rock by Elvis :) I do try not to be a 1upper in general, but in this case I thought the situation definitely called for it.

 The biggest fish: I took a chance and ate it at a big dinner; unbeknownst to me at the time was that 40% of all mercury poising cases in Changchun were the result of tainted fish.

                                                                 

Spot the big shot!

Brookings Conference on the Evolution of China's Governance

So, it’s been a fairly busy week on the China front at the Brookings Institute, which hosted two excellent conferences on the Evolution of China’s Governance as well as the Evolution of China’s Economy.

A synopsis of the conferences is probably the way forward in trying to explain the significance of the next five years in terms of governance and economic reform, I’ll also try and spice it up with my own observations.

In terms of the evolution of China’s governance, Wang Changjiang from the CCP Party School was the biggest catch for a Brookings guest speaker.  He brought up several interesting points, including:

External pressure does not exist for the CCP

The perspective of a monolithic government of China is a mistake

A market economy will inevitably lead, in an orderly manner, to a democracy

He also mentioned a few specific reforms to the governing process:

Strengthen the role of the Party Congress: “The current role of the Party Congress is to applaud every five years…”

The Congress could be present for standing committee meetings while also establishing more permanent committees.

While the gist of his speech was about reforming the Party governance structure as a means to create widespread democracy throughout China, I was particularly interested by his perspective that a market economy will lead to a democracy.  There are currently plans to double the minimum wage in China within three years, and as more and more people reach middle class status there will be pressure to democratize.  I think it’s accepted in the US and elsewhere that democracy and a market economy are not linked, China is the often cited example, so to hear the director of the Party School emphasize the importance of this connection is pretty shocking.

The former Ambassador to China, Roy Stapleton, also made an appearance at Brookings, who looked at age limits of the party leadership as means of bringing fresh perspectives to the CPC.  “There would be no John McCain in the Chinese political system”.  Instead, Ambassador Roy emphasized the fact that Xi Jin Ping, who is slated to replace Hu Jintao, was twenty-six at the time of Reform and Opening.  The Ambassador also stressed the importance of economic growth as an instigator of change within the Chinese government.

Yu Ke Ping, a Professor with the China Center for Comparative Politics and Economics at Beijing University, identified eight principal challenges to reform.

1.     Problems with election mechanisms

2.     Checks and balances are not in place

3.     Public service is lacking

4.     Issues with transparency

5.     Administrative costs

6.     Rule of law is lagging

7.     Civil society is immature

8.     Relationships between the public and organs of state need reform

Professor Yu’s proposed way forward includes:

1. Strengthen the rule of law

2. Institute intra-party democracy

3. Emphasize social justice

There were also several interesting discussions following the Q&A

Professor Yu reiterated that change is incremental, not gradual.  The difference is important, because incremental change is uncontrollable; it is inevitable.  Gradual change, on the other hand, implies a level of control.

Another key finding was a look at other Asian countries and their applicability to China.

Ambassador Roy looked at Thailand, where a rushed democracy led to chaos and eventually a strongman rule.

According to Professor Yu, the Chinese government has been closely monitoring Singaporean society for many years.  Singapore is a fairly rigid society, with punishments on the books for every fathomable offense as well as strict ethnic ratio quotas (74% Chinese, 13% Malay, 12% Indian and other… http://theonlinecitizen.com/2011/02/race-issues-in-singapore-is-the-hdb-ethnic-quota-becoming-a-farce/)

There are, however, two fundamental differences between Singapore and china.  First, there are 75 million Party members in China compared with 4.5 million citizens in all of Singapore.  Second, there are sophisticated mechanisms in place to gauge public sentiment in Singapore, which is currently not the case in the PRC.

Another difference between Singapore and China: a cursory glance at taking the trains!

 Spring Festival in China is the largest migration of people on earth- in 2008 the trains broke down in Guangzhou, people were furious and Premier Wen had to show up to calm everyone down.  Strengthening relations between the public and organs of state is a necessary reform in China.

Singapore Central Station, Spring Festival period 2010.  Note the absence of an angry mob.

Cheng Li, a Brookings Institute resident scholar, was the final speaker at the conference.  He focused on some of the nitty gritty details of what to expect in 2012, when 70% of the total Chinese leadership will be replaced.  The crux is that so much is still unknown.

9-12 people are vying for 3 openings on the standing committee.

His principal statement, however, was the theory of “One Party, Two Coalitions”.    According to Mr. Li, there is currently an even 50-50 split between “Elitists” and Populists” at all levels of governance.  The Elitists are made up of Princelings, the sons of current Party members, as well as dark forces from the Shanghai mafia and industrialist supporters.  The Populist coalition is more of a socially conscious group that looks to solve problems related to rapid urbanization.  For more on Cheng Li’s “One Party, Two Coalitions”, check out: http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0816_china_li.aspx

The basic message I got out of the conference was that, despite the impression in the US that believes government and free market having nothing to do with each other, key players in the China scene believe otherwise.

Well, that about wraps up my synopsis of the Brookings Conference on Government reform over the next five years.  I’ll post the second installment on economic reform shortly, and look to make a comparative analysis.  As always please leave your thoughts and questions!

Eating dog dumplings

Please don’t hate me because I eat dog dumplings.  I hope by saving three puppies from a burning home that makes up for what I did... but in my defense I was confused by the Chinese characters and ordered dog instead of pork.  I should have known something was amiss when the waiter looked at me with a cocked eyebrow and said, “really?”  But what kind of restaurant puts dog dumplings on the menu anyways?!  Never in a million years did that cross my mind.  So, how did I know I was eating dog and not pork?  Because there’s a real difference.  Pork tastes like pork and dog tastes like dog.  Simple as that.

On a related note, one time I was walking through the main drag of Changchun with a student of mine and we were talking about cultural differences between the US and China.  That’s not at all uncommon for expats to do, so don’t be judgmental.  As we were walking down the street we came across a North Korean restaurant.  Outside the restaurant was a slaughtered dog on the sidewalk.  Next to the slaughtered dog was a North Korean, in a smock, smoking a cigarette with a look of satisfaction on his face.  “I just did that to this dog, it’s fresh, can’t you see?  Come to my restaurant and enjoy some fresh dog meat”, he seemed to say.  It was pure culture shock 101.  I turned to my student and told her so.  Her response? Culture shock for her too.

At a famous dumpling restaurant in Xian, where the dumplings look like what's inside: order chicken and they look like chicken, beef dumplings look like a cow etc... dog dumplings are mostly found in NE China, but wouldn't it be morbidly cool if they were served in the shape of a dog?

Now that I’m comfortably back home in the US, where I’m as far away from dog meat as possible, I can reflect on those good times.  With my golden retriever next to me.  She’s fattened up over the last few months.  Mwuhaha!!

Travel in Jilin

I could go on and on about traveling China.  Everyone has their favorite places to visit, and I was fortunate enough to see about half the provinces.

Jilin: home sweet home.  During the spring of my first year the university took all the foreign teachers to visit Changbaishan, the crater-lake that straddles the PRC and DPRK.

 Ascending Changbai Shan, even in May it's freezing!

 Crater Lake, legend has it there's a monster lurking beneath the waters- not seen are the Chinese soldiers who stop travelers from wandering into DPRK territory...

Apparently Kim Il Sung was from there, not the area of Changbaishan, but literally arising from the crater lake in all his authoritarian glory.  Nearby in Chanbai city we had a chance to view Haesong, the third or fourth largest city in North Korea.  It was a cool experience.  There were no cars on the streets, the Koreans were playing in the Yalu river, and upstream was a paper mill.  There were no trees at all in North Korea, which was shocking because just across the river in Jilin there were lush forests and waterfall parks.

                 Hyesan, North Korea.  There are North Koreans swimming in the Yalu!

 North Korean paper mill

North Korean countryside, where are the trees you may ask? In China as it turns out

Lush forests in Jilin, the Yalu River marks a stark contrast between the PRC and DPRK

Songyuan.  Worthless place.  The coolest thing about Songyuan, which lies about two hours from CC, is that there are more taxis than people who live there.  I guess that isn’t cool.  Sorry Songyuan.

Jilin City.  I’m a bit torn about this place.  I read in the NY Times that there was a chemical plant which caused 1,400 people to get sick.  The local authorities called it a classic case of “mass hysteria” and didn’t do anything about it.  I’m no local authority, and pretty skeptical about the whole thing.  Industrial waste aside, Jilin is a pretty nice place.  In the winter the trees freeze over and it’s quite beautiful.  There’s also excellent skiing nearby, at Beidahu, about the best winter activity around.

 Jilin City temple

 Skiing at Beida Hu.  Jilin hosted the 1997 Asian Winter Games!

Siping City:  This is an increasingly nice place to visit.  Up and coming, there are lots of shops, and if you’re eccentric enough you can by a Chinese sitar for 1,300rmb.  That’s a great deal for an instrument that always sounds nice no matter what you do with it!  Apparently this city was taken and retaken multiple times by tanks and armies when the KMT and PLA fought their civil war, and while war memorials may not be your thing, the walls in the city center depict the battles pretty clearly.

Siping City by night- it's "Yuk" season in March, when the snow melts during the day and freezes over at night.

 There’s also a river walk promenade in Siping that is clean!!  Next to the river, which borders the city hall, is a stone carving in calligraphy that proclaims all the great things the local government has done for Siping.  Specifically, it reads, “before the government restored the river walk it was a cesspool”.  Thank you Becky for the funny translation!

So that’s about it for Jilin.  I do think Changchun deserves it’s own posting, in fact it has a lot of history and was the birthplace of the Fulan Gong.  I’m pretty sure that quasi religion started because life is so hard there.  And it got a lot harder for practitioners once a million people or so joined it, threatening the CPC.  But there are other cool things about CC.  Statue Park, one of the largest such parks in the world with artists from 100 countries or so.  Also Puyi’s palace, where the puppet Emperor lived under Japanese occupation.  The architecture is also unique, it’s cold and military style inspired by Japanese rule.  Nanhu park is probably the main attraction though, and one of the best I have seen in China.

                                            Nanhu (South Lake) park

                                            Nanhu Park bridge

Chinese and US Civil Wars

US involvement in the Chinese Taiping Rebellion

I hope at some point to write a significantly longer piece on this topic, comparing the US and Chinese civil wars of the 19^th century, for now here is a brief synopsis.

The 150^th anniversary of the US Civil War is here, and over the next few years there will be plenty of celebrating to go around.  Gettysburg is coming up, July of 2013, but so is the battle of Shanghai.  This decisive battle was fought by expats living in Shanghai against the Taiping rebels, lead by an American mercenary- Francis Townsend Ward.  In the end those expat soldiers, who numbered about 200, were pretty inept at fighting rebels, and Ward recruited an army of Chinese.  Those western trained soldiers, equipped with British modern arms and funded by Shanghai bankers, were responsible for a slew of victories that helped crush the Taipings.  Ward was even made an honorary Chinese citizen, and given the highest honors the Qing government could bestow on military leaders.  He’s a pretty fascinating character, and I would recommend reading his biography if you have the chance (Devil Soldier by Caleb Carr).

I would safely wager that many Americans are not aware that while we fought our bloodiest war from 1861-65, China was in a midst of her own bloodletting, the Taiping Rebellion.  A cursory glance at these histories would say they are nothing alike.  China is China and America is America.  These are vastly different societies with different ways of thinking.  The sheer scale of the Taiping rebellion in fact dwarfs that of the US Civil War, simply look at the casualty figures: Taiping Rebellion had upwards of 20 million deaths, compared to six hundred thousand in the US.  However, one of China’s unique traits has always been a vast population (ask any Chinese person what the #1 problem is in their country and they will usually say “too many people”).  So, when put into perspective, proportionally these conflicts are relatively equal.  (As a note, I believe the exact census figures are available before and after the Civil Wars in China and the US, when I find that info I'll post it and double check...)

Perhaps the single biggest difference lies in the fact that the US fought a war of modernity, whereas in China’s case swords were still common on the battlefield.  Let that sink in.  Swords were used to kill 20 million people.

Another crazy difference is that in China’s case, there were multiple rebellions the Manchus fought at the same time, including a combined European force that fought their way into the forbidden city.

Despite the fundamental differences in scale and type of warfare, I would argue the similarities are more manifold.

RESASONS FOR WAR

The build up to war in the US has been documented by numerous sources, and can be boiled down to the fact that political parties, whose differences revolved around the right to own slaves, were centered in North Vs South geopolitics.  Southerners were fighting for their independence and the right to own slaves, while Northerners fought to preserve the Union and abolish slavery.

As for China, the Taipings essentially went to war against the corrupt and hated Manchu government while also making war on Confucius ideology.  The last point is by far the most significant.  Few ethnic Han Chinese enjoyed the Manchu rule, yet Confucism was fundamental to society and legitimacy of rule.  When analyzing the US and Chinese civil wars, Confuscism  and slavery were the flashpoints that brokered no compromise; either you agreed slavery was socially reprehensible or not, while in China you either supported Confuscism as the basis for society or not.  One was anathema to the other, enough so that in China’s case soldiers and generals fought for their Manchu rulers not out of patriotism for the government, rather out of their desire to preserve legitimacy and order.

LEADERSHIP

Crucially missing on the Southern side of the US Civil War was a dynamic civilian leader.  A history professor once asked a piercing question: name a single great speech or important document that came from the south?  Isn’t gonna happen.  Lincoln was the political star and is lovingly remembered as the man who ended slavery.  He also issued the Gettysburg address, and his inaugural speech is written on the prominent Lincoln memorial in Washington, D.C., arguably the most visited attraction in the US capital.

The sheer personality of the Taiping leader, Tian Wang, was the driving force behind the Rebellion.  Brace yourselves if you don’t already know this, but Tian Wang convinced millions of Chinese that he was the brother of Jesus Christ.  Consequently, if he was the younger brother of Christ, there was no need for confuciaism; it was wrong and needed to be destroyed in iconoclastic glory.

The Taiping Rebellion also saw the rise of Cixi, who crushed her enemies at court and would rule to the end of the Qing dynasty.

SOLIDIFICATION OF RULING PARTIES

Abraham Lincoln has been criticized for his handling of elections during the civil war.  Those elections, however, were tantamount to deciding factor on continue to war or settle with the south. The results of the 1964 campaign secured Lincoln’s right to rule and prosecute war to the end.  About the same time, in 1863 the Manchus were driven from their court by warring Europeans.  Within the Manchu government were coalitions that desired continued prosecution of the war against France and England, and those who favored peace terms and a refocus on the Taipings.  In a kind of “election with Chinese Characteristics” Cixi, the Emperess Dowager, had the war coalition assassinated before they had time to execute her.  Peace was made with the European powers, and war was continued against the Taipings under Cixi’s strengthened position.

AREA OF CONFLICT

With the exception of Gettysburg, most of the fighting in the US Civil War was waged in the South.  This was also the case in the Taiping Rebellion.  Shelby Foote maintained that the North essentially fought with one hand behind it’s back, this can also be said of the Qing government, which was fighting multiple uprisings as well as Europeans.  Once these wars were resolved, the full might of the Qing ruling faction was deployed against the Nanjing government.

SCORCHED EARTH

To end the war Generals Sherman and Sheridan scorched the Confederacy, pillaging and decimating the countryside and cities of the south to break the will of Confederate soldiers.  Starvation was real in besieged cities during both conflicts.  During the siege of Vicksburg the local populace was reduced to eating horsemeat.  Even in Nanjong, the capital of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, people eat grass.

REBELLIOUS DECADENCE

High society in Richmond has been documented as surreal to the extreme.  Even when Union forces were at the gates of Richmond there were balls held and debauchery to be had.  However, this was not at all to the degree present in Nanjing, capital of Tian Wang’s Heavenly Taiping Kingdom.  Tian Wang instituted a puritanical grip over his dominion, forbidding sex even to married couples, while he personally enjoyed the high life of harems, gourmet feasts and fortified wine.

FOREIGN INTERVENTION

Cotton and Opium

If trade was the lifeblood of the CSA, King Cotton being what it was back in the 19^th century, and if British commercial interests were seriously threatened, there would have been a distinct possibility of foreign intervention in the US Civil War.  As it turned out for the Confederacy, after years of trade there was a glut in cotton and this was not a critical national priority for England.  Brittan, however, had previosly fought trade wars against China, twice over opium, and their commercial interests were at stake regarding the Taiping rebels.  For years the Taipings allowed foreigners to trade into the heartland of the middle kingdom, yet when those trade interests were perceived to be threatened, the foreign powers backed the ruling Manchus and engaged the Taipings around Shanghai.

On a side note, what’s up with that? I personally find it outrageous foreign powers would wage a crushing war against the Qing government one year, and the next year side with that very government.

DECISIVE BATTLES

The battle of Gettysburrg and the battle of Shanghai occurred at roughly the same time.  They each altered the course of their prospective conflicts in decisive ways.  While the Battle of Shanghai was being fought by Francis Townsend Ward and his Every Victorious Army, numbering two thousand at it’s peak yet successfully defeated Taiping armies of 20,000 or more, the point is that rebels lost both of these conflicts.

Conclusion: More similar than not

I would very much appreciate any thoughts, comments or suggestions you have about this posting.  I do maintain that these two conflicts were more similar than not.  It’s a fascinating history and I do encourage everyone to read more about it.  As Americans begin remembering the 150^th anniversaries of the Civil War, I would be very interested in seeing China's response to it's own historic war.

BP and Dalian Oil Spills

BP and Dalian oil spills:

This has been an ongoing idea I’ve had since even before the first anniversary of the BP oil spill.  While the BP disaster gripped the world’s attention throughout the summer of 2010, I was personally horrified by a similar disaster that struck the Chinese coastal city of Dalian that very summer.  I often visited Dalian as an escape from Changchun; the seafood is fresh, the coasts are beautiful and tourist sites like the Seashell Museum and “Chinese Sea World” are pretty fun.

Although the causes of each disaster are different, the BP blowout happened at a deepwater facility while Dalian occurred from an onshore pipeline blowout, the simple fact is that these two events are the worst oil disasters in Chinese and the US history.  As such, there are several relevant questions that can be asked when looking at the disasters through comparative lenses.

What are similarities, differences?

Are there lessons that can be learned?

Can those lessons be shared?

This is indeed an area where bridges can be formed between the US and China, where information sharing can help foster ties between these two nations.  All too often, editorials in both Chinese and US papers fret over conflicts of interest when cooperation can be mutually beneficial.  Oil spill responses are a shared imperative, and while preventing future spills is the best defense, eventualities must be formed in case a nightmare scenario occurs yet again.

The Root Cause of Disaster: Negligence.

According to the spill commission report issued in Jan. 2011, the BP spill was avoidable and happened because of systemic issues involving the regulatory regime.   The failed track record of BP alone should have been a red flag.  In China’s case, pipeline operators neglected their duty,, and were not able to close the pipeline until nearly 200,000 barrels of oil spewed onto the surrounding coast.

Could the Dalian operators have been drinking on the job?

Anecdotal evidence suggests this is not too far fetched to believe.  Less than a year after China’s worst oil spill, a scandal broke involving Sinopec, the largest oil company in China.  Sinopec officials reportedly purchased $200,000 in foreign wine and Moutai Baijiu, evidence of systemic problems in the industry.

http://www.cncworld.tv/news/v_show/14427_Oil_giant_booze_scandal.shtml

  China Petroleum Corp (CNPC) was responsible for the Dalian spill, but judging from this breaking scandal oil companies have learned nothing since the oil spill.

At Sea Vs On the Coast

Actually, this point gets me pretty heated when people claim these two disasters are nothing alike.  In the Dalian case, 200,000 barrels of oil spread along the beaches and devastated the ecosystem immediately following the blowout.  It took a few months, but eventually the BP spill also reached the Gulf coastline.  Coastal cleanup efforts occurred in both countries, similarities and differences abound.  Manual labor was required in both cases, yet the US cleanup crews were careful to not make skin contact with oil, while in China crews simply cupped their hands and put the oil in buckets.  The pictures speak volumes.

                                                          BP Oil Clean up Crews

                                             Dalian Firefighters, clean up crews (Lu Gang)

                                            A photo of Dalian fishing boats I took in 2008

                                                          Fishing boats after the spill

Who’s Affected By the Spill?

Dalian is renowned throughout China as a fishing hub.  I never ate fish in Changchun, where 40% of all mercury poisoning cases are attributed to tainted fish (Source: China’s Mercury Problem: A Sleeping Giant by Celia Y. Chen in Wilson Center China Environment Series Issue 10), however Dalian is a different story.  Oysters, clams, squid, you name the seafood and I enjoyed it in Dalian!  But now that the fisheries have been inebriated with oil, is it safe to eat?

In the US, people with highly tuned noses systematically smelled for the presence of oil in shrimp and fish, where an absence of oil meant it was safe to eat.  I don’t know how the Chinese determined the safety of their seafood.  Apparently the American method works, we’re still eating Gulf Coast shrimp, and this bit of information could be passed on.

Compensation: Complicated in Both Countries

Both oil spills occurred during the summer, which is peak season for visitors in both countries. 

While I have not visited every beach in China, I have had the opportunity to visit Dalian four times.  While the beaches are nothing to gush about, they are still pleasant if a little small.  For many Chinese people, the opportunity to visit a beach is something special, and with an upward moving society more and more people are able to take time off and visit locales.  Dalian is a prime destination, and when the oil spill occurred those tourists were scared off.

The realm of compensation is complicated.  It’s a mental exercise to think about the many people who were affected by the spill.  Street venders had no one to sell their wares to.  Hotels went empty.  Restaurants were empty.  Bars failed to attracted tourists.  Sea World, and all the employees, missed out on their summer tourist season.  Fishermen were especially affected.  As far as their livelihood is concerned, they missed out on time at sea doing their jobs because trawlers were drafted to clean up the oil.  Questions abound on whether the fish population was affected; the long-term affects are still unknown.  The list goes on and on and on.

Multi-million dollar Dalian beach property has certainly been affected as well.  Xinghai Square, and all the surrounding apartments, are some of the most expensive property in all of China.  Will property owners be compensated as well?

The same situations can be applied to Gulf Coast residents.  Hotels that would normally be filled, restaurants that would be bustling with activity, beach venders and bartenders failed to make their summer earnings.  It’s complicated, and the economic effects stretch across the continental US.  I even heard restaurants in Washington, D.C. lost potential income because oysters from the Gulf, which under normal circumstance would be available, were not sold and revenue was lost.  Fishermen were out of work.  BP must and will pay, and the system of compensation should be examined.  It would seem China Petroleum ought to be held accountable for every life affected economically, just as in the BP and American case.

Medical claims

The oil spills present an opportunity to document the medical effects of contamination by oil on the human body.  As David Kennedy, the lead scientist at NOAA, explained at a CSIS event last March, the human costs are to be considered before anything else.  What is certain is that several clean up workers in the Gulf of Mexico were hospitalized; however, heat exhaustion may have also played a role.  Long-term consequences are as yet unknown.

In China, however, human bodies were literally used to soak up the oil.  Crews of fishermen jumped in the water to pick up as much oil off their bodies before rinsing off and jumping in again.  The photos are shocking. Lu Guang received an award for his photojournalism. http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/Blogs/makingwaves/dalian-oil-spill-photographer-receives-award-/blog/34625.

What the US can learn, if at all possible, are the immediate short-term health effects of those clean up crews who were covered head-to-toe.  A joint Chinese/US case study could be useful in determining long-term health effects.

Laws on the Books

There are specific oil laws on the books in the US.  Many of these laws came to be following the Exxon Valdez disaster in the late 1980’s .  There are specific penalties that deal with spilled oil on a per barrel basis, and two degrees of fines based on negligence or gross negligence.  In BP’s case, the Department of Justice will most certainly be enacting a lawsuit based on gross negligence.

There are currently no oil specific laws on the books in China.  However, that does not mean China Petroleum will get away Scott clean.  As professor Yu Wenxuan, an environmental lawyer at the Center for Legal Assistance to Pollution Victims, informed me in an email exchange, CNPC will be fined under “industrial waste law.  The oil company will still be forced to pay, but will probably get away with paying a lot less than BP.  As China looks to expedite the process of enacting spill laws, perhaps it is worth looking at the US as a model.

Big Difference: An Open Society or Quiet Competence

The public demanded that BP reveal the extent of the disaster via a live streaming “spill cam”.  Anyone could see the magnitude of the spill.  Independent experts were able to offer their own assessments on the amount of oil being released, which changed from 3,000 barrels per day, to 5,000, then 12,000 and ultimately 20,000.  An open society matters, because fines are assigned based on the number of barrels- BP would have much preferred to minimize the assessments.

There is no equivalent to a third party distributor like Ken Fineberg of China.  Although he has gotten flack recently for delaying the $20 billion BP fund to victims, at the very least people are able to file their claims and check in on their progress.

For now, all that’s known about the China case is that the company will pay for medical expenses and costs of the clean up.  They are also being fined based on industrial waste laws, yet without specific stipulations this may not turn out to be enough.  What is known is that a scant three weeks after the Dalian spil the local authorities claimed everything was back to normal, an assessment that has been sharply disputed by Greenpeace.

At the same time, given the public-private nature of CNPC, the Company and government response was coordinated.  The full extent of the damage in Dalian was known right away to the government, and responses were formed.  BP, on the other hand, was able to conceal the extent of the spill for three weeks from the US government, according to David Kennedy at NOAA.  This level of corporate-government cooperation is a lesson the US can learn from China’s case.

Restoring the Gulf of Mexico and the Bo Hai Sea

There are currently no laws on the books in the US that stipulate use of BP funds to restore the Gulf of Mexico.  I am not sure about the current state of play in China and the Bo Hai Sea.

A summary of lessons learned and information that can be shared

*When determining contaminated seafood, the Chinese can learn from the US in terms of using fine-tuned noses that can detect the presence of oil in food.

*China can also learn from the US regarding specific oil spill laws.

*As the Department of Justice prepares it’s lawsuit against BP regarding human health costs associated with oil contamination, it is worth noting China’s own human health costs from their first responders.  If local authorities are unwilling to release this health information, it would be a clear sign China Petroleum Corp is winning.

*The US can also learn from the coordination of the Chinese response, in which government and company responses were crafted immediately following the blowout.

Lessons for the Immediate Future:

As Chinese oil companies seek to extract oil from other countries, especially Lake Albert in Uganda, an ecologically fragile system, it is important that they learn from their own mistakes and the mistakes of BP.  Should an oil spill occur in Uganda as a result of negligence, the companies cannot expect local Ugandans to risk oil contamination the way it played out in Dalian.  Another lesson would be how the US government reacted harshly to a foreign company- any future exploration by Chinese companies need to keep in mind they will be prosecuted should the worst occur outside Chinese territory.